Picnic Valley, San Rafael Housing Market · 2026

Data through Aug 2026

Data curated by Melanie Tan, 8 Blocks Real Estate · How this data works

Picnic Valley, San Rafael Market Snapshot

Picnic Valley is a balanced market, but competition has been picking up. Here's where things stand:

Based on 5 homes sold in the 3 months ending August 2026. Includes all residential types (SFH, condo, townhouse, multi-family, and others). Enough to see the trend, but individual sales still move the median. Updated weekly.

Data through August 2026

SalesWhat are homes selling for?
Median Sale Price
$1.07M
▼ Down 3.0% from August 2025
Down $33K from August 2025
Homes Sold
5
Sold in the last 3 months. More sales = more reliable data.
Your CostWhat would you actually pay each month?
Monthly Payment
~$7,138/mo
7.28% · 30yr fixed · 20% down
Payment Breakdown
  • Principal & Interest$5,843
  • Property Tax$1,112
  • Insurance$183
CompetitionHow competitive is it right now?
Days on Market
71 days
▲ 46 more days than in August 2025
Buyers have time to decide
Sale-to-List Ratio
104.3%
▲ Up from 102.3% in August 2025
Selling 4% above asking
% Sold Over Asking
60%
More than half of homes sold above their asking price
Active Listings
2
▼ Down 46.3% from August 2025
About 1.3 months of supply. Very low, limited options for buyers

Market Trends

See how prices, monthly costs, and mortgage rates have moved in Picnic Valley.

Median Sale Price
Down 3.0% year-over-year in Picnic Valley. Based on 5 sales in the last 3 months.
Homes Sold
Total Monthly Payment
Estimated monthly cost is down 2% from a year ago in Picnic Valley, reflecting changes in both price and mortgage rates.

Includes principal, interest, estimated CA property tax (~1.25%), and estimated insurance (~$2,200/yr). HOA fees not included.

30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rate (National Avg.)
National average currently at 7.28%. Your actual rate depends on your credit, down payment, and loan type.

Frequently asked questions about Picnic Valley, San Rafael

Is now a good time to buy in Picnic Valley, San Rafael?

Picnic Valley, San Rafael is balanced but competition is picking up. It remains a reasonable environment for buyers, though acting decisively on well-priced homes is becoming more important.

How do Picnic Valley, San Rafael home prices compare to the Bay Area average?

At $1.07M, Picnic Valley, San Rafael's median sits about 40% below the Bay Area average of $1.78M. That average is skewed high by ultra-premium peninsula enclaves like Atherton and Woodside, so a more useful frame is that Picnic Valley, San Rafael is one of the more accessible corners of the Bay Area.

Within San Rafael, this area trades about 18% below the city-wide median of $1.30M.

How competitive is Picnic Valley, San Rafael for buyers?

Picnic Valley, San Rafael is a balanced market where neither side dominates:

  • Homes sell about 4% above asking on average
  • 60% close above list price
  • 71 days typical time to go pending

Buyer strategy: contingencies are more accepted, and there is time to tour and negotiate without extreme pressure.

What will my total monthly cost be on a median-priced Picnic Valley, San Rafael home?

At $1.07M with 20% down at 7.28%, your estimated total monthly cost is approximately $7,138:

  • $5,843 principal and interest
  • $1,112 property tax (California 1.25% effective rate)
  • $183 homeowners insurance

HOA fees are extra.

No noise, just a quick weekly read on what's going on in your market.

Melanie Tan
Melanie Tan
DRE #02250755
“I help Bay Area buyers and sellers make confident moves with the latest market data, real local expertise, and the patience to find what's actually right for you, not the fastest close.”
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